Chart of the Day (x2) $GRPN

Itshardtotalkabouttheinternetstockdarlingsof2013andnotmentionthe150%gainsinGRPN,astockthatcaughtnotorietylastyearafteritsinitialIPOsuccess,onlytolosecloseto90%ofitsvaluefromthehighs?

Despitethisyearsgains,andtherecent40%gainsinthelastmonth,thestockisstill50%belowthe2012highs。

Will2014beanequallysuccessfulyearforGRPN?

Yourguessisasgoodasmine,butmysenseisthatthecompanysshifttowardsdirectsellingofgoods,awayfromtheirdailydealsmodel,puttingthemindirectcompetitionwithe-commercebehemothslikeAMZNandbricksandmortarretailerslikeCOSTTGTwillbeonethatdramaticallystrainsoverallcompanymargins,andthuspossiblystrainingthestocksperformance?

Formoreonthefundamentals,checkoutEnissDeepDivepostfromlateSeptember,here)。

Asforthetechnicalsetup,thelastmonthsbouncecamefromaVERYinterestingpivotpoint?

Theoneyearchartbelowshowswhatappearstobeaspikebottom(circled)backinlateNovember,withabounceoffimportanttechnicalsupportatits200daymovingaverage(yellowline)。

GRPN1yrchartfromBloomberg

Thestockssubsequentbouncehascomethoughtoafairlyimportantjuncture,justthismorningtouchingtheuptrendthathasbeeninplacefromtheMarchlows,near$4!

WhydoIthinkthemovetotheuptrendisimportant?

Well,becauseitisonthewrongsideofit?

BackinlateOctober,whenthestockbroketheuptrendtothedownside,thestockmadelowerlowsandspentthelast2monthsbelowthatlevel,forallintentsandpurposesitbecameabrokenstock?

Nowthestockisback,andwhatappearstobeonso-sovolume?

IfIwereinclinedtotrytoshortthestock,thiswouldbethespot,keepingastopjustabovethe52weekhighof$12。

76。

Atleastonetraderexpectedtheselevelseitherlateintheyearornextmonthaswehadreported2weeksagoinourTooManyOptionspostonDec12th?

whenatraderrolledupsomeJancalls:

Selling17kJan10callsat。

99tocloseandbought17kJan12callsfor。

27toopen。